Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Tampa 3–6 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 11 → 12 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 106 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 10 → 12 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 13.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: 53% → 56% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 39% → 32%; calm-weather level 14%
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 AM–noon Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 97 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 49% at worst → 27% now
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:16 AM–1:16 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 18%
What changed: slow share 35% at worst → 7% now
Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 15 arrivalsSlow 7%Usually 5%
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 35%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 29%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 14.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:47 PM–12:47 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 19%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:33 PM–12:33 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
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