Will your flight be late?
Tell us the flight. Pick the day you’re flying and we’ll give you the odds; they get sharper as the weather forecast, the FAA and your plane’s earlier flights come into focus.
0ground stops in effect right now
1FAA delay program right now
23%average chance of a late departure on Thursday
2%average chance of a cancellation on Thursday
Schedule: FAA flight plans for 6 flights; the other 21,243 (marked “typical”) come from a recent Thursday’s schedule until the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
Airports on Thursday, October 1
Forecasts for Thu, Oct 1, worst first. Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET.
- Chance a departure that hour leaves 15+ min late on a normal day
- Extra today
DFW
Dallas–Fort Worth
#1
Rough weather, no program posted yet
50%
leave 15+ min late
17%
cancelled, ~163 of 961
+31 pts above normal
▼ 3 pts in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 7 PM · 62%
23 kt gusts, 200 ft ceiling, 2.4 in rain
ORD
Chicago O'Hare
#2
Rough weather, no program posted yet
33%
leave 15+ min late
3%
cancelled, ~35 of 1081
+18 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 7 PM · 48%
9 kt gusts, 600 ft ceiling, 1.3 in rain
IAH
Houston Bush
#3
30%
leave 15+ min late
2%
cancelled, ~8 of 347
+15 pts above normal
▼ 1 pt in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 7 PM · 46%
23 kt gusts, high ceiling, 0.21 in rain
DEN
Denver
#4
29%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~10 of 992
+11 pts above normal
▼ 1 pt in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 6 PM · 42%
18 kt gusts, high ceiling, 0.31 in rain
MIA
Miami
#5
28%
leave 15+ min late
4%
cancelled, ~12 of 299
+11 pts above normal
▲ 1 pt in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 5 PM · 40%
25 kt gusts, high ceiling, 0.53 in rain
FLL
Fort Lauderdale
#6
27%
leave 15+ min late
2%
cancelled, ~5 of 249
+8 pts above normal
▲ 1 pt in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 8 PM · 44%
23 kt gusts, high ceiling, 0.47 in rain
LAS
Las Vegas
#7
24%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~7 of 502
+2 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 8 PM · 36%
10 kt gusts, high ceiling
MCO
Orlando
#8
22%
leave 15+ min late
2%
cancelled, ~8 of 427
+8 pts above normal
▲ 1 pt in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 10 PM · 42%
19 kt gusts, 4800 ft ceiling, 0.15 in rain
PHX
Phoenix
#9
22%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~8 of 540
+2 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 10 PM · 35%
5 kt gusts, high ceiling
BWI
Baltimore/Washington
#10
22%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~4 of 287
+2 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 8 PM · 36%
8 kt gusts, high ceiling
SFO
San Francisco
#11
22%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~6 of 468
+5 pts above normal
▲ 1 pt in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 3 PM · 32%
11 kt gusts, 1100 ft ceiling
SEA
Seattle–Tacoma
#12
21%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~6 of 538
+4 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 8 PM · 26%
8 kt gusts, 3900 ft ceiling
DTW
Detroit
#13
21%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~5 of 352
+8 pts above normal
▲ 2 pts in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 8 PM · 35%
15 kt gusts, high ceiling, 0.24 in rain
CLT
Charlotte
#14
20%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~7 of 524
+3 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 7 PM · 32%
10 kt gusts, high ceiling
DCA
Washington National
#15
20%
leave 15+ min late
2%
cancelled, ~6 of 415
+3 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 6 PM · 32%
9 kt gusts, high ceiling
LAX
Los Angeles
#16
20%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~7 of 588
+3 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 2 PM · 27%
13 kt gusts, 700 ft ceiling
LGA
New York LaGuardia
#17
19%
leave 15+ min late
2%
cancelled, ~9 of 384
+4 pts above normal
▲ 1 pt in 24 h
35%
Worst hour 6 PM · 30%
13 kt gusts, high ceiling
JFK
New York JFK
#18
18%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~4 of 301
+4 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 8 PM · 32%
12 kt gusts, high ceiling
PHL
Philadelphia
#19
18%
leave 15+ min late
2%
cancelled, ~6 of 337
+4 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 6 PM · 28%
10 kt gusts, high ceiling
EWR
Newark
#20
18%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~5 of 338
+4 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 6 PM · 30%
13 kt gusts, high ceiling
BOS
Boston Logan
#21
Delay program, avg 74 min (runway construction)
18%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~5 of 445
+4 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 7 PM · 32%
16 kt gusts, high ceiling
ATL
Atlanta
#22
18%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~12 of 951
+3 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 6 PM · 29%
14 kt gusts, high ceiling
SLC
Salt Lake City
#23
15%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~4 of 338
+2 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 7 PM · 35%
12 kt gusts, high ceiling
IAD
Washington Dulles
#24
14%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~2 of 177
+3 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 6 PM · 28%
7 kt gusts, high ceiling
MSP
Minneapolis–St Paul
#25
14%
leave 15+ min late
1%
cancelled, ~4 of 368
+3 pts above normal
35%
Worst hour 7 PM · 25%
15 kt gusts, high ceiling
Table view
| # | Airport | FAA status | Late departure | Vs. normal | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DFW Dallas–Fort Worth | Rough weather, no program posted yet | 50% | +31 pts | 17% |
| 2 | ORD Chicago O'Hare | Rough weather, no program posted yet | 33% | +18 pts | 3% |
| 3 | IAH Houston Bush | Normal operations | 30% | +15 pts | 2% |
| 4 | DEN Denver | Normal operations | 29% | +11 pts | 1% |
| 5 | MIA Miami | Normal operations | 28% | +11 pts | 4% |
| 6 | FLL Fort Lauderdale | Normal operations | 27% | +8 pts | 2% |
| 7 | LAS Las Vegas | Normal operations | 24% | +2 pts | 1% |
| 8 | MCO Orlando | Normal operations | 22% | +8 pts | 2% |
| 9 | PHX Phoenix | Normal operations | 22% | +2 pts | 1% |
| 10 | BWI Baltimore/Washington | Normal operations | 22% | +2 pts | 1% |
| 11 | SFO San Francisco | Normal operations | 22% | +5 pts | 1% |
| 12 | SEA Seattle–Tacoma | Normal operations | 21% | +4 pts | 1% |
| 13 | DTW Detroit | Normal operations | 21% | +8 pts | 1% |
| 14 | CLT Charlotte | Normal operations | 20% | +3 pts | 1% |
| 15 | DCA Washington National | Normal operations | 20% | +3 pts | 2% |
| 16 | LAX Los Angeles | Normal operations | 20% | +3 pts | 1% |
| 17 | LGA New York LaGuardia | Normal operations | 19% | +4 pts | 2% |
| 18 | JFK New York JFK | Normal operations | 18% | +4 pts | 1% |
| 19 | PHL Philadelphia | Normal operations | 18% | +4 pts | 2% |
| 20 | EWR Newark | Normal operations | 18% | +4 pts | 1% |
| 21 | BOS Boston Logan | Delay program, avg 74 min (runway construction) | 18% | +4 pts | 1% |
| 22 | ATL Atlanta | Normal operations | 18% | +3 pts | 1% |
| 23 | SLC Salt Lake City | Normal operations | 15% | +2 pts | 1% |
| 24 | IAD Washington Dulles | Normal operations | 14% | +3 pts | 1% |
| 25 | MSP Minneapolis–St Paul | Normal operations | 14% | +3 pts | 1% |
“Above normal” (the red part of each bar) is how much worse the late-departure chance is than our estimate for the same flights on a normal day — today that’s the weather forecast; live FAA and airport conditions will join it. Every chart uses the same scale. Airports with too little flight data aren’t shown. Schedule: FAA flight plans for 6 flights; the other 21,243 (marked “typical”) come from a recent Thursday’s schedule until the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.