tailodds FORECAST

Will your flight be late?

Tell us the flight. Pick the day you’re flying and we’ll give you the odds; they get sharper as the weather forecast, the FAA and your plane’s earlier flights come into focus.

0ground stops in effect right now
1FAA delay program right now
21%average chance of a late departure on Friday
1%average chance of a cancellation on Friday

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for departures at these airports on a Friday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years. They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

Airports on Friday, October 2

Typical odds for Fri, Oct 2, worst first. Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET.

  • Chance a departure that hour leaves 15+ min late on a normal day
  • Extra today
FLL Fort Lauderdale #1
26% leave 15+ min late
4% cancelled, ~10 of 250
+7 pts above normal
Worst hour 9 PM · 40% Clear
MIA Miami #2
25% leave 15+ min late
3% cancelled, ~8 of 300
+7 pts above normal
Worst hour 4 PM · 33% Clear
BWI Baltimore/Washington #3
25% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~3 of 287
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 41% Clear
LAS Las Vegas #4
24% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~4 of 503
+1 pt above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 39% Clear
DFW Dallas–Fort Worth #5
24% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~13 of 960
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 33% Clear
DCA Washington National #6
24% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~7 of 415
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 35% Clear
LGA New York LaGuardia #7
23% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~8 of 383
+7 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 36% Clear
SEA Seattle–Tacoma #8
22% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~4 of 536
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 4 PM · 28% Clear
PHX Phoenix #9
22% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~4 of 541
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 37% Clear
DEN Denver #10
22% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~7 of 994
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 35% Clear
SFO San Francisco #11
22% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~4 of 465
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 3 PM · 30% Clear
PHL Philadelphia #12
22% leave 15+ min late
3% cancelled, ~10 of 334
+6 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 32% Clear
CLT Charlotte #13
21% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~6 of 524
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 30% Clear
IAH Houston Bush #14
21% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~5 of 351
+6 pts above normal
Worst hour 1 PM · 32% Clear
ORD Chicago O'Hare #15
21% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~14 of 1082
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 5 PM · 29% Clear
EWR Newark #16
20% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~6 of 337
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 35% Clear
LAX Los Angeles #17
20% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~5 of 587
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 2 PM · 28% Clear
JFK New York JFK #18
20% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~6 of 303
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 32% Clear
MCO Orlando #19
20% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~5 of 431
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 32% Clear
BOS Boston Logan #20
Delay program, avg 74 min (runway construction)
19% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~5 of 448
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 35% Clear
ATL Atlanta #21
19% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~9 of 954
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 29% Clear
DTW Detroit #22
16% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~3 of 350
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 25% Clear
MSP Minneapolis–St Paul #23
16% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~3 of 371
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 25% Clear
SLC Salt Lake City #24
16% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~2 of 343
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 34% Clear
IAD Washington Dulles #25
15% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~2 of 178
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 26% Clear
Table view
#AirportFAA status Late departureVs. normalCancelled
1FLL Fort Lauderdale Normal operations26%+7 pts 4%
2MIA Miami Normal operations25%+7 pts 3%
3BWI Baltimore/Washington Normal operations25%+5 pts 1%
4LAS Las Vegas Normal operations24%+1 pt <1%
5DFW Dallas–Fort Worth Normal operations24%+4 pts 1%
6DCA Washington National Normal operations24%+5 pts 2%
7LGA New York LaGuardia Normal operations23%+7 pts 2%
8SEA Seattle–Tacoma Normal operations22%+4 pts <1%
9PHX Phoenix Normal operations22%+2 pts <1%
10DEN Denver Normal operations22%+4 pts <1%
11SFO San Francisco Normal operations22%+4 pts <1%
12PHL Philadelphia Normal operations22%+6 pts 3%
13CLT Charlotte Normal operations21%+3 pts 1%
14IAH Houston Bush Normal operations21%+6 pts 1%
15ORD Chicago O'Hare Normal operations21%+4 pts 1%
16EWR Newark Normal operations20%+5 pts 2%
17LAX Los Angeles Normal operations20%+2 pts <1%
18JFK New York JFK Normal operations20%+5 pts 2%
19MCO Orlando Normal operations20%+4 pts 1%
20BOS Boston Logan Delay program, avg 74 min (runway construction)19%+5 pts 1%
21ATL Atlanta Normal operations19%+2 pts <1%
22DTW Detroit Normal operations16%+3 pts <1%
23MSP Minneapolis–St Paul Normal operations16%+3 pts <1%
24SLC Salt Lake City Normal operations16%+2 pts <1%
25IAD Washington Dulles Normal operations15%+3 pts <1%

“Above normal” (the red part of each bar) is how much worse the late-departure chance is than our estimate for the same flights on a normal day — today that’s the weather forecast; live FAA and airport conditions will join it. Every chart uses the same scale. Airports with too little flight data aren’t shown. Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

Questions people are watching

Will a typical FLL departure be cancelled Friday?FLL · Fort Lauderdale 4% Yes 4% No 96% Will a typical PHL departure be cancelled Friday?PHL · Philadelphia 3% Yes 3% No 97% Will a typical MIA departure be cancelled Friday?MIA · Miami 3% Yes 3% No 97% Will a typical JFK departure be cancelled Friday?JFK · New York JFK 2% Yes 2% No 98%