tailodds FORECAST

Will your flight be late?

Tell us the flight. Pick the day you’re flying and we’ll give you the odds; they get sharper as the weather forecast, the FAA and your plane’s earlier flights come into focus.

0ground stops in effect right now
1FAA delay program right now
21%average chance of a late departure on Sunday
1%average chance of a cancellation on Sunday

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for departures at these airports on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years. They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

Airports on Sunday, October 4

Typical odds for Sun, Oct 4, worst first. Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET.

  • Chance a departure that hour leaves 15+ min late on a normal day
  • Extra today
DFW Dallas–Fort Worth #1
25% leave 15+ min late
3% cancelled, ~30 of 957
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 35% Clear
LAS Las Vegas #2
24% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~4 of 504
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 9 PM · 38% Clear
FLL Fort Lauderdale #3
24% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~3 of 254
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 38% Clear
BWI Baltimore/Washington #4
24% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~3 of 274
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 38% Clear
SEA Seattle–Tacoma #5
23% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~4 of 539
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 1 PM · 28% Clear
MCO Orlando #6
23% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~11 of 441
+6 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 39% Clear
IAH Houston Bush #7
23% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~6 of 343
+7 pts above normal
Worst hour 1 PM · 32% Clear
DEN Denver #8
22% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~8 of 974
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 32% Clear
LGA New York LaGuardia #9
22% leave 15+ min late
3% cancelled, ~12 of 358
+8 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 35% Clear
EWR Newark #10
22% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~8 of 331
+7 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 37% Clear
MIA Miami #11
22% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~4 of 302
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 31% Clear
PHX Phoenix #12
22% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~5 of 529
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 34% Clear
ORD Chicago O'Hare #13
22% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~13 of 1080
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 31% Clear
DCA Washington National #14
22% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~6 of 400
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 33% Clear
BOS Boston Logan #15
Delay program, avg 74 min (runway construction)
22% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~6 of 434
+7 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 43% Clear
LAX Los Angeles #16
21% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~5 of 579
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 30% Clear
JFK New York JFK #17
21% leave 15+ min late
2% cancelled, ~6 of 303
+5 pts above normal
Worst hour 10 PM · 34% Clear
PHL Philadelphia #18
21% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~5 of 333
+4 pts above normal
Worst hour 5 PM · 31% Clear
CLT Charlotte #19
20% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~6 of 521
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 29% Clear
SFO San Francisco #20
20% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~4 of 456
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 5 PM · 28% Clear
ATL Atlanta #21
20% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~9 of 942
+2 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 29% Clear
DTW Detroit #22
17% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~4 of 348
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 8 PM · 26% Clear
SLC Salt Lake City #23
17% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~4 of 342
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 26% Clear
MSP Minneapolis–St Paul #24
15% leave 15+ min late
<1% cancelled, ~3 of 372
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 7 PM · 24% Clear
IAD Washington Dulles #25
15% leave 15+ min late
1% cancelled, ~2 of 178
+3 pts above normal
Worst hour 6 PM · 24% Clear
Table view
#AirportFAA status Late departureVs. normalCancelled
1DFW Dallas–Fort Worth Normal operations25%+4 pts 3%
2LAS Las Vegas Normal operations24%+2 pts <1%
3FLL Fort Lauderdale Normal operations24%+3 pts 1%
4BWI Baltimore/Washington Normal operations24%+4 pts 1%
5SEA Seattle–Tacoma Normal operations23%+5 pts <1%
6MCO Orlando Normal operations23%+6 pts 2%
7IAH Houston Bush Normal operations23%+7 pts 2%
8DEN Denver Normal operations22%+4 pts <1%
9LGA New York LaGuardia Normal operations22%+8 pts 3%
10EWR Newark Normal operations22%+7 pts 2%
11MIA Miami Normal operations22%+4 pts 1%
12PHX Phoenix Normal operations22%+2 pts <1%
13ORD Chicago O'Hare Normal operations22%+5 pts 1%
14DCA Washington National Normal operations22%+4 pts 2%
15BOS Boston Logan Delay program, avg 74 min (runway construction)22%+7 pts 1%
16LAX Los Angeles Normal operations21%+3 pts <1%
17JFK New York JFK Normal operations21%+5 pts 2%
18PHL Philadelphia Normal operations21%+4 pts 1%
19CLT Charlotte Normal operations20%+2 pts 1%
20SFO San Francisco Normal operations20%+3 pts <1%
21ATL Atlanta Normal operations20%+2 pts <1%
22DTW Detroit Normal operations17%+3 pts 1%
23SLC Salt Lake City Normal operations17%+3 pts 1%
24MSP Minneapolis–St Paul Normal operations15%+3 pts <1%
25IAD Washington Dulles Normal operations15%+3 pts 1%

“Above normal” (the red part of each bar) is how much worse the late-departure chance is than our estimate for the same flights on a normal day — today that’s the weather forecast; live FAA and airport conditions will join it. Every chart uses the same scale. Airports with too little flight data aren’t shown. Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

Questions people are watching

Will a typical LGA departure be cancelled Sunday?LGA · New York LaGuardia 3% Yes 3% No 97% Will a typical DFW departure be cancelled Sunday?DFW · Dallas–Fort Worth 3% Yes 3% No 97% Will a typical MCO departure be cancelled Sunday?MCO · Orlando 2% Yes 2% No 98% Will a typical EWR departure be cancelled Sunday?EWR · Newark 2% Yes 2% No 98%