Today: WN 4785 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–60%.

Safest bet today WN 4785 LAX 06:41 → SJC 08:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4857 LAX 19:35 → SFO 20:55 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4785 Southwest	LAX 06:41	SJC 08:04	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1282 Southwest	ONT 05:51	SJC 07:17	2%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 2826 Southwest	ONT 05:40	OAK 07:00	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 547 Southwest	LAX 06:00	SJC 07:15	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 833 Southwest	ONT 06:15	SJC 07:30	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 477 Southwest	LGB 07:05	SJC 08:20	3%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 4947 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 07:00	OAK 08:15	3%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 1598 Southwest	ONT 07:11	OAK 08:39	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3848 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 07:45	OAK 09:20	3%	1%	0.5%	100%
WN 3625 Southwest	LAX 07:16	OAK 08:41	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3496 Southwest	LGB 08:03	OAK 09:33	4%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 1393 Southwest	LGB 07:51	SJC 09:15	4%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 1102 Southwest	SNA 08:03	OAK 09:36	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2426 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:10	SFO 07:35	5%	1%	0.1%	97%
WN 1123 Southwest	BUR 07:21	OAK 08:44	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3859 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 08:00	SJC 09:20	5%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 332 Southwest	LAX 07:55	SJC 09:05	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4708 Southwest	LAX 08:10	OAK 09:30	6%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 4009 Southwest	SNA 08:49	SJC 10:18	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 802 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:10	OAK 09:25	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1137 Southwest	BUR 08:14	SJC 09:36	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1887 Southwest	LAX 08:01	SJC 09:23	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 834 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:10	SJC 09:20	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2647 United Flight history →	LAX 06:00	SFO 07:35	7%	3%	0.2%	94%
UA 781 United	LAX 06:05	SFO 07:42	7%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1031 Southwest	BUR 09:50	OAK 11:13	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 966 Southwest	SNA 09:39	SJC 11:08	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3946 Southwest	LGB 11:23	OAK 12:52	8%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 804 Southwest	ONT 10:00	OAK 11:15	8%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 3849 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 09:15	OAK 10:40	9%	2%	0.4%	91%
WN 1045 Southwest	LAX 08:52	OAK 10:17	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2382 Southwest	SNA 10:20	OAK 11:45	9%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 3587 Southwest	SNA 09:53	OAK 11:25	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 883 Southwest	BUR 10:50	OAK 12:13	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 928 Southwest	BUR 10:19	SJC 11:41	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2363 United Flight history →	ONT 06:00	SFO 07:25	10%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 3860 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 09:55	SJC 11:10	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:55	SJC 09:10	10%	3%	0.2%	100%worse than usual
WN 835 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 10:10	SJC 11:20	11%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 2503 Southwest	LAX 06:35	SFO 08:02	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 3280 Southwest	ONT 10:48	SJC 12:14	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 1625 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 06:00	SFO 07:22	11%	3%	0.3%	97%
WN 803 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 10:50	OAK 12:05	11%	2%	0.6%	94%
OO 3847 SkyWest	LAX 07:54	SJC 09:21	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 960 Southwest	LAX 09:50	OAK 11:10	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 126 Southwest	LGB 11:30	SJC 12:40	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3804 Southwest	LGB 12:06	SJC 13:30	12%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 2313 Southwest	LAX 10:36	SJC 11:59	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 257 Southwest	LGB 12:55	OAK 14:10	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 2965 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:22	SJC 10:38	14%	3%	0.2%	92%
WN 4002 Southwest	ONT 12:51	OAK 14:18	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 4208 Southwest	BUR 11:45	OAK 13:00	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4945 Southwest	BUR 07:06	SFO 08:32	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	LAX 09:26	SJC 10:47	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SFO 08:21	16%	3%	0.2%	94%
WN 1481 Southwest	SNA 11:49	SJC 13:18	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2432 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:00	SJC 12:10	16%	3%	0.2%	79%
WN 3937 Southwest	LAX 11:00	OAK 12:20	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 561 Southwest	LAX 10:52	OAK 12:17	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1387 United	ONT 09:29	SFO 11:08	17%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3861 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 11:40	SJC 13:05	17%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SFO 08:30	19%	5%	0.3%	80%
WN 3881 Southwest	LGB 14:11	OAK 15:41	20%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 3997 Southwest	SNA 12:28	OAK 14:00	20%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 1257 Southwest	BUR 13:02	SJC 14:24	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SFO 08:37	20%	5%	0.2%	82%
UA 520 United	BUR 09:35	SFO 11:23	20%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 3151 Southwest	SNA 21:01	SJC 22:30	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 827 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:30	SFO 08:50	21%	3%	0.5%	19%
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 07:45	SFO 09:34	21%	4%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
UA 1372 United Flight history →	LAX 07:25	SFO 08:58	21%	4%	0.2%	49%
UA 653 United	SNA 07:47	SFO 09:22	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 438 Southwest	BUR 13:15	SJC 14:30	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1371 Southwest	BUR 15:26	OAK 16:49	21%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2433 Southwest	ONT 12:55	SJC 14:05	22%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4986 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 12:50	OAK 14:20	22%	4%	0.3%	65%
WN 123 Southwest	ONT 15:51	OAK 17:18	22%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 925 Southwest	BUR 13:46	OAK 15:09	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4747 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 15:20	OAK 16:40	23%	4%	0.2%	66%
WN 4936 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 21:10	SJC 22:30	23%	9%	0.7%	64%
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SNA 08:00	SFO 09:30	24%	6%	0.6%	69%
WN 1261 Southwest	BUR 14:27	SJC 15:49	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	25%	5%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
AS 1603 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SFO 08:39	25%	4%	0.4%	65%
OO 5396 SkyWest	ONT 18:40	SFO 20:41	25%	16%	0.8%	no record
WN 2577 Southwest	LGB 16:41	SJC 18:05	25%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:17	SJC 19:32	25%	13%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 3342 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 09:00	SFO 10:36	26%	7%	0.5%	40%
WN 805 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 14:45	OAK 16:00	26%	3%	0.7%	68%
WN 1227 Southwest	SNA 21:11	OAK 22:43	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3164 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 21:30	SJC 22:45	26%	11%	0.5%	65%
WN 2667 Southwest	ONT 21:11	OAK 22:38	26%	8%	0.5%	no record
AS 3486 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:50	SFO 12:27	26%	7%	0.4%	49%
OO 3054 SkyWest	SNA 09:14	SFO 10:50	26%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 2504 Southwest	LAX 09:56	SFO 11:22	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:32	SJC 15:46	26%	7%	0.2%	95%worse than usual
OO 6274 SkyWest	LAX 07:23	SFO 08:53	26%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	26%	10%	0.4%	57%
OO 5483 SkyWest	ONT 16:06	SFO 17:40	26%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 5616 SkyWest	SNA 09:45	SFO 11:21	27%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3282 Southwest	ONT 20:36	SJC 22:02	27%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 2949 Southwest	ONT 20:30	OAK 21:50	27%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 3831 Southwest	SNA 19:56	SJC 21:25	27%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 5624 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 18:39	SFO 20:07	27%	19%	0.8%	16%
OO 3849 SkyWest	LAX 14:25	SJC 15:52	27%	7%	0.2%	no record
DL 1715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:20	SFO 10:42	28%	5%	0.2%	52%
UA 520 United Flight history →	LAX 09:10	SFO 10:45	28%	6%	0.2%	65%
WN 2509 Southwest	LAX 13:36	SJC 14:58	28%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 3155 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:35	OAK 17:50	28%	6%	0.4%	79%
UA 5562 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 09:45	SFO 11:21	28%	7%	0.5%	33%
WN 3862 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 13:35	SJC 15:00	28%	4%	0.5%	62%
WN 4012 Southwest	SNA 14:35	SJC 16:04	28%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1420 Delta	LAX 20:52	SJC 22:13	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3869 Southwest	BUR 19:12	SJC 20:34	28%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 1150 Southwest	LGB 19:51	OAK 21:20	28%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2578 Southwest	LGB 19:01	SJC 20:25	29%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 4014 Southwest	SNA 17:51	SJC 19:20	29%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 2111 United	SNA 18:22	SFO 20:11	29%	16%	0.8%	no record
WN 3163 Southwest	LAX 15:26	OAK 16:51	29%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SFO 12:21	29%	9%	0.2%	52%
WN 2842 Southwest	BUR 15:45	SJC 16:55	29%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 561 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 13:06	SFO 14:51	30%	7%	0.4%	50%
DL 1359 Delta	LAX 16:06	SJC 17:27	31%	10%	0.2%	no record
OO 5330 SkyWest	SNA 11:12	SFO 13:04	31%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 889 Southwest	BUR 19:26	OAK 20:49	31%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 3495 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 20:25	SFO 22:03	31%	12%	0.9%	32%
UA 1905 United	LAX 09:41	SFO 11:09	31%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 1320 United	SNA 15:06	SFO 16:55	31%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 1010 Southwest	BUR 16:47	SJC 18:09	31%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 12:01	SFO 13:37	31%	12%	1.0%	23%
WN 312 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 20:50	OAK 22:20	31%	8%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 3705 Southwest	SNA 19:45	SJC 21:00	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 3073 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:59	SJC 22:13	31%	10%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 935 Southwest	BUR 20:21	SJC 21:43	31%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 2500 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 18:35	SJC 19:45	32%	6%	0.5%	68%
WN 2490 Southwest Flight history →	LGB 19:55	OAK 21:15	32%	6%	0.5%	59%
AA 1110 American	LAX 11:11	SFO 12:52	32%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 4020 Southwest	ONT 15:51	SJC 17:17	32%	10%	0.2%	no record
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:00	SJC 17:12	32%	8%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
AS 736 Alaska	SNA 19:31	SFO 20:56	33%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 3039 SkyWest	SNA 11:53	SFO 13:29	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
OO 3055 SkyWest	SNA 13:50	SFO 15:26	33%	7%	0.5%	no record
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:24	SFO 18:00	33%	7%	0.5%	72%
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:22	SFO 10:56	33%	7%	0.1%	37%
WN 4113 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:52	OAK 16:25	33%	5%	0.3%	90%worse than usual
WN 1501 Southwest	BUR 13:46	SFO 15:12	33%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 2657 United Flight history →	SNA 18:20	SFO 19:51	33%	16%	0.8%	41%
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	33%	16%	1.0%	50%
WN 807 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 19:30	OAK 20:45	33%	8%	0.8%	72%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 17:50	SFO 19:26	33%	16%	0.9%	62%
OO 3493 SkyWest	SNA 20:34	SFO 22:10	33%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 1145 Southwest	BUR 20:51	OAK 22:14	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 15:40	OAK 17:05	33%	6%	0.4%	60%
WN 806 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 17:45	OAK 19:00	34%	7%	0.8%	68%
WN 2505 Southwest	LAX 12:26	SFO 13:52	35%	6%	0.1%	no record
DL 2725 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:00	SFO 13:26	35%	7%	0.2%	69%
UA 1245 United Flight history →	LAX 11:52	SFO 13:29	35%	8%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
UA 469 United Flight history →	LAX 13:22	SFO 14:50	35%	7%	0.2%	77%worse than usual
WN 2897 Southwest	SNA 17:10	OAK 18:43	35%	6%	0.3%	no record
AS 1456 Alaska	LAX 09:12	SFO 10:36	35%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 830 Southwest	BUR 12:20	SFO 13:35	35%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 3269 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 14:46	SFO 16:20	35%	7%	0.5%	19%
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	35%	8%	0.5%	67%
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 08:38	SFO 10:12	35%	7%	0.8%	50%
WN 2596 Southwest	LAX 22:11	SJC 23:33	35%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 1129 Southwest	BUR 18:01	OAK 19:24	35%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 18:03	SFO 19:33	35%	16%	0.9%	65%
UA 372 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	SFO 14:53	36%	7%	0.2%	65%
F9 3581 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 17:54	SFO 19:34	36%	17%	1.2%	61%
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:44	SFO 11:14	36%	6%	0.1%	63%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	SFO 12:30	36%	8%	0.2%	58%
UA 1066 United	BUR 16:10	SFO 17:38	36%	9%	0.3%	no record
UA 2823 United Flight history →	SNA 14:47	SFO 16:18	36%	8%	0.4%	35%
WN 3164 Southwest	SNA 19:25	OAK 20:57	37%	10%	0.5%	no record
AA 6510 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:32	SFO 23:59	37%	14%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
WN 840 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:35	SJC 19:45	37%	9%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
WN 4950 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SFO 14:30	37%	6%	0.1%	22%
UA 2199 United	LAX 10:54	SFO 12:22	37%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 4047 Southwest	SNA 15:45	SJC 17:14	37%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3864 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 16:55	SJC 18:15	37%	7%	0.5%	53%
UA 233 United Flight history →	LAX 17:10	SFO 18:38	37%	8%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
DL 689 Delta	LAX 12:01	SFO 13:25	37%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 91 Alaska	LAX 15:35	SFO 16:59	37%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 1267 Southwest	LAX 22:51	OAK 00:16	37%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 2510 Southwest	LAX 19:41	SJC 21:04	37%	11%	0.6%	no record
DL 2197 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:16	SFO 19:42	37%	16%	0.7%	45%
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:10	SFO 23:39	37%	14%	0.7%	63%
AS 3067 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:27	SFO 23:57	37%	14%	0.7%	36%
WN 2427 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:45	SFO 12:00	38%	4%	0.1%	19%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:34	SFO 13:08	38%	9%	0.2%	39%
WN 2388 Southwest	LAX 17:00	OAK 18:25	38%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3845 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:35	SJC 17:45	38%	10%	0.3%	70%
WN 2694 Southwest	SNA 17:00	OAK 18:25	38%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	38%	8%	0.3%	66%
AS 309 Alaska	LAX 12:57	SFO 14:21	38%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 2495 Southwest	LAX 16:51	OAK 18:16	38%	7%	0.2%	no record
AS 1522 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 13:28	SFO 14:51	38%	9%	0.4%	48%
WN 3222 Southwest	LAX 22:35	SJC 23:55	38%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2709 Southwest	BUR 20:15	OAK 21:30	38%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 4884 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 20:20	SJC 21:30	38%	10%	0.9%	67%
WN 3853 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 18:35	OAK 20:00	39%	10%	0.5%	45%
WN 4484 Southwest	LAX 18:21	SJC 19:43	39%	11%	0.6%	no record
DL 1559 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:35	SFO 18:52	39%	15%	0.7%	69%
F9 4081 Frontier	LAX 18:36	SJC 20:06	39%	16%	1.8%	no record
WN 4997 Southwest	LAX 14:01	SFO 15:27	39%	6%	0.1%	no record
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SFO 15:34	39%	9%	0.2%	39%
UA 357 United Flight history →	BUR 16:13	SFO 17:41	39%	8%	0.2%	46%
OO 6276 SkyWest	LAX 14:00	SFO 15:30	40%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 2561 Southwest	LAX 22:30	OAK 23:55	41%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 2518 Southwest	LAX 18:21	OAK 19:46	41%	10%	0.5%	no record
UA 1047 United	LAX 22:31	SFO 23:59	41%	16%	0.5%	no record
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	41%	14%	0.9%	41%
UA 1388 United	BUR 21:50	SFO 23:18	41%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 2932 Southwest	BUR 20:50	SFO 22:15	41%	14%	1.0%	no record
WN 1504 Southwest	BUR 20:56	SFO 22:22	41%	13%	1.0%	no record
OO 5272 SkyWest	BUR 21:18	SFO 22:47	41%	13%	1.2%	no record
UA 2019 United Flight history →	LAX 16:14	SFO 17:42	42%	9%	0.2%	68%worse than usual
AS 361 Alaska	LAX 17:25	SFO 18:49	42%	9%	0.4%	no record
AS 1411 Alaska	LAX 14:27	SFO 15:51	42%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 2056 United Flight history →	LAX 21:34	SFO 23:02	42%	16%	0.5%	61%
AA 3138 American Flight history →	LAX 17:40	SFO 19:18	42%	23%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
WN 1150 Southwest	LAX 20:15	OAK 21:40	44%	10%	0.5%	no record
UA 2854 United Flight history →	BUR 20:22	SFO 21:50	44%	15%	0.9%	53%
AS 1607 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:03	SFO 11:27	44%	6%	0.4%	33%
UA 2837 United	LAX 18:53	SFO 20:21	44%	21%	0.5%	no record
WN 2435 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 20:55	SJC 22:10	45%	10%	0.6%	54%
DL 2986 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:00	SFO 23:19	45%	13%	0.7%	60%
F9 2457 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:11	SJC 19:28	46%	17%	1.6%	81%worse than usual
DL 1693 Delta	LAX 20:08	SFO 21:33	46%	16%	0.7%	no record
AA 2567 American Flight history →	LAX 17:52	SFO 19:21	46%	23%	0.6%	57%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:25	SFO 15:44	46%	9%	0.2%	50%
UA 2681 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	SFO 20:10	46%	18%	0.5%	38%
AS 1610 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:25	SFO 17:47	46%	10%	0.4%	54%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	LAX 20:10	SFO 21:38	48%	17%	0.5%	28%
WN 193 Southwest	LAX 18:45	SJC 19:55	48%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2429 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:45	SFO 23:15	50%	15%	0.5%	9%
AA 3100 American Flight history →	LAX 21:10	SFO 22:38	50%	19%	0.6%	40%
F9 4593 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 19:07	SFO 20:45	50%	21%	1.2%	49%
AS 1601 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 19:34	SFO 20:57	51%	13%	0.6%	15%
AS 1364 Alaska	LAX 19:50	SFO 21:14	51%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 3541 Southwest	LAX 18:56	SFO 20:21	54%	20%	0.5%	no record
WN 2106 Southwest	LAX 20:56	SFO 22:21	56%	18%	0.5%	no record
WN 4857 Southwest	LAX 19:35	SFO 20:55	60%	16%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON