Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 247 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 43% → 32%; calm-weather level 12%
Tailodds’ model gives the 163 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 210 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Sunday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 60% → 49% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 265 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 49%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 46% → 67%
Of 49 arrivals that landed between 4:54 PM and 5:54 PM EST, 33 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:54 PM–5:54 PM ESTSample 49 flightsLate 67%Typical 17%
What changed: 71% → 81% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 130 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 72% → 83% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 180 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 83%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 100% at worst → 14% now
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:02 AM and 12:02 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 17% of arrivals at Atlanta arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:02 AM–12:02 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 14%Typical 17%
What changed: late share 54% → 69%
Of 35 departures that took off between 10:35 AM and 11:35 AM EST, 24 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:35 AM–11:35 AM ESTSample 35 flightsLate 69%Typical 16%
What changed: 56% → 70% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 203 departures scheduled from Atlanta 3–6 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 70%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 59% → 72% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 179 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 72%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 259 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 60% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%
Tailodds’ model gives the 260 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 29%Horizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 48% → 21%; calm-weather level 10%
Tailodds’ model gives the 140 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 AM Saturday an average 21% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 21%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 58% → 78% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Atlanta midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 78%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 17 departures that took off between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:15 PM–10:15 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 94%Typical 25%
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 8:25 PM EST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 7:46 PM EST.
What changed: 82% → 94% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Atlanta 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 94% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 94%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 6:05 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:04 PM EST.
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:41 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:32 PM EST.
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:15 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:05 PM EST.
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Atlanta (ATL) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:00 PM EST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 4:49 PM EST.
What changed: 53% → 84% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 212 departures scheduled from Atlanta 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 44% → 33% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 208 departures scheduled from Atlanta noon–3 PM Friday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 33%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 87% at worst → 6% now
Of 16 departures that took off between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM EST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Atlanta typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:59 AM–6:59 AM ESTSample 16 flightsLate 6%Typical 10%
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