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Type: Cancellation ×Airport: JFK × Clear filters
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EST, Nov 14 15 min ago
Forecast Major Developing Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 18 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday

What changed: about 14 → 18 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 68 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~18 cancellationsHorizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (6) 5 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 14 1 h ago
Forecast Major Developing Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 15 → 22 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (7) 6 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 14 1 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among JFK departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 14 → 21 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 91 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 14 3 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 21 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 39 → 21 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 75 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 14 9 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 45 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 9 → 45 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 45 of the 95 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~45 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 14 12 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 13 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 15 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 18 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View JFK
EST, Nov 13 19 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

What changed: about 41 → 46 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 66 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (70%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~46 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (9) 8 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 22 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 74 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

What changed: about 11 → 74 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 74 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (74%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~74 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (7) 6 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 25 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among JFK departures 3–6 PM Friday

What changed: about 7 → 13 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 27 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday

What changed: about 11 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (6) 5 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 31 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday

What changed: about 24 → 16 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 105 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~16 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (10) 9 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 33 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday

What changed: about 7 → 12 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~12 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (7) 6 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 12 44 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

What changed: about 10 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 71 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 12 45 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday

What changed: about 10 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 11 2 days ago
Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation JFK departures

Model expects about 5 cancellations among JFK departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 95 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 18.6 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View JFK
EST, Nov 6 7 days ago
Forecast Informational Resolved Resolution Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday to about 3

What changed: about 5 → 3

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View JFK

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

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An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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