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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

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Type: Cancellation ×Airport: MSP × Clear filters
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CST, Nov 15 2 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Sunday

What changed: about 11 → 13 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 118 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View MSP
CST, Nov 15 4 h ago
Forecast Significant New Cancellation MSP departures

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Sunday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 105 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View MSP
CST, Nov 15 4 h ago
Forecast Significant New Cancellation MSP departures

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 76 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View MSP
CST, Nov 15 4 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 5 → 11 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 109 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (9) 8 earlier matching updates View MSP
CST, Nov 15 6 h ago
Forecast Informational Resolved Resolution Cancellation MSP departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3

What changed: about 5 → 3

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 76 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View MSP
CST, Nov 15 7 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Sunday

What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View MSP
CST, Nov 14 20 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved De-escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 18 → 11 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 94 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View MSP
CST, Nov 14 22 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Minneapolis departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 5 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 62 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View MSP
CST, Nov 14 25 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 86 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View MSP
CST, Nov 14 28 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Updated model now expects about 10 among Minneapolis departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View MSP
CST, Nov 14 31 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View MSP
CST, Nov 13 43 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation MSP departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Minneapolis departures 6–9 PM Friday

What changed: about 8 → 15 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View MSP

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

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An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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