Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 4 min
What changed: about 15 → 7 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 92 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 60% → 48% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 25%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 10 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 12:54 AM and 1:54 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 8.9 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Landed 12:54 AM–1:54 AM PSTSample 10 arrivalsSlow 40%Usually 5%
What changed: about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 37 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 103 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 17 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:16 PM and 12:16 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 2 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 3.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 11:16 PM–12:16 AM PSTSample 17 arrivalsSlow 12%Usually 5%
What changed: ground delay program no longer listed
The ground delay program for flights to SFO (SFO) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 11:59 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 6:15 AM PST.
What changed: 44% → 57% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from SFO midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 23 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 58 → 66 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 66 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (78%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 7:35 PM and 8:35 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:52 PM and 7:52 PM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: about 36 → 57 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 57 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (69%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: about 41 → 54 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 54 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 6. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 59% → 92% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 92%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 67% → 95% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 95% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 58%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 95%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 74% → 97% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 97% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 68%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 97%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: low cloud or visibility → no longer reported
No official weather observation (METAR) for SFO (SFO) in the last 50 minutes reports low cloud or visibility; it was last reported at 12:38 PM PST. The latest, at 12:56 PM PST, reports rain; mist, ceiling 2400 ft, visibility 4 mi, wind 10 kt.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Of 22 departures that took off between 11:06 AM and 12:06 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?