Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 hstaleForecast cycle 62 minLightning 221 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 8 min
FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (221 h old).
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Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
What changed: 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 38%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:32 PM–12:32 AM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 74%Typical 26%
Of 19 departures that took off between 9:34 PM and 10:34 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 61% → 60% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 26 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 25 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 11:26 PM and 12:26 AM EST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:26 PM–12:26 AM ESTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 26%
Of 22 departures that took off between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 62% → 55% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:31 PM and 2:31 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
What changed: 60% → 52% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 72% → 61% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 60% → 48% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 81 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 11:44 PM and 12:44 AM EST, 18 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at Boston arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:44 PM–12:44 AM ESTSample 24 flightsLate 75%Typical 26%
Of 24 departures that took off between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Boston typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 81% → 66% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Boston 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 72% → 86% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 86% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 86%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 65% → 79% since the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 79%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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