Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 134 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 24 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 240 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~18 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 86 → 17 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 225 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 89 → 21 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 227 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 14 → 99 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 99 of the 240 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~99 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 14 → 27 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 130 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 44 → 23 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~24 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 29 → 38 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 223 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~38 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 38 → 46 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 220 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~46 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 25 → 52 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 52 of the 236 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~52 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 25 → 102 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 102 of the 234 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~102 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 43 → 50 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 50 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~50 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 40 → 59 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 59 of the 233 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~59 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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