Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 51% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 42% → 84% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 84%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 14 departures that took off between 10:42 AM and 11:42 AM EST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:42 AM–11:42 AM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 18%
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:23 PM and 11:23 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:23 PM–11:23 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:22 PM and 7:22 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:22 PM–7:22 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 62%Typical 33%
What changed: 45% → 61% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 43 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Thursday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 41% → 31%; calm-weather level 18%
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Thursday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 departures that took off between 5:59 PM and 6:59 PM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:59 PM–6:59 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 33%
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 21% now
Of 14 departures that took off between 4:17 PM and 5:17 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:17 PM–5:17 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 21%Typical 29%
What changed: 41% → 32%; calm-weather level 27%
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 62% → 53%
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 11:01 PM and 12:01 AM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:01 PM–12:01 AM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 53%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 75% → 50%
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:42 PM and 7:42 PM EST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:42 PM–7:42 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 50%Typical 36%
What changed: 56% → 61% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 8% now
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 1:15 PM and 2:15 PM EST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Raleigh/Durham arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:15 PM–2:15 PM ESTSample 12 flightsLate 8%Typical 23%
What changed: 54% → 62% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 52% → 56% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 56% at worst → 27% now
Of 15 departures that took off between 6:56 PM and 7:56 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Raleigh/Durham typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:56 PM–7:56 PM ESTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 36%
What changed: 41% → 34%; calm-weather level 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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