Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Of 19 departures that took off between 11:38 AM and 12:38 PM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 47% → 64% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 58% → 71% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:11 AM and 12:11 PM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 10:26 AM and 11:26 AM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 31% of arrivals at SFO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:26 AM–11:26 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 27%Typical 31%
What changed: 57% → 70% since the 8:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 departures that took off between 8:25 AM and 9:25 AM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:25 AM–9:25 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 12%Typical 10%
What changed: 56% → 55% since the 6:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 45% → 64% since the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 25%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 44% → 57% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from SFO midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 59% → 92% since the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 92% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 92%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 67% → 95% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 95% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 58%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 95%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 74% → 97% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Friday an average 97% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 68%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 97%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 22 departures that took off between 11:06 AM and 12:06 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 74% → 66% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 28 departures that took off between 8:13 AM and 9:13 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 20% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:13 AM–9:13 AM PSTSample 28 flightsLate 0%Typical 10%
What changed: 56% → 52% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from SFO 9 AM–noon Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:48 PM and 9:48 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 25 departures that took off between 6:28 PM and 7:28 PM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 37%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 37%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from SFO noon–3 PM Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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