Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Sunday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 AM and 7:14 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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The airport closure at Love Field (DAL) no longer appears in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:59 AM CST, in 4 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 8:32 PM CST.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 37 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 19 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (49%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 21 departures scheduled from Love Field (DAL) between 12:00 PM and 1:30 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 17. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DAL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 33 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 40 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 36 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 29 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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