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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Type: Cancellation ×Airport: PHX × Clear filters
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MST, Nov 15 10 min ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Sunday

What changed: about 12 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 15 10 min ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Sunday

What changed: about 14 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 120 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 15 1 h ago
Forecast Major Developing Escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Updated model now expects about 9 among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 77 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View PHX
MST, Nov 15 5 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved Escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Updated model now expects about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday

What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 112 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View PHX
MST, Nov 15 7 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved Escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 15 10 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved De-escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday

What changed: about 13 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 14 24 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Saturday

What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View PHX
MST, Nov 14 24 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday

What changed: about 15 → 22 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 122 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~22 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 14 25 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 10 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 104 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (7) 6 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 14 30 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved De-escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

What changed: about 41 → 15 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 14 33 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved De-escalation Cancellation PHX departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 30 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View PHX
MST, Nov 13 38 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 16 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View PHX
MST, Nov 13 41 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 45 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View PHX
MST, Nov 13 44 h ago
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Model expects about 10 cancellations among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View PHX
MST, Nov 13 46 h ago
Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Friday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 113 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View PHX

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

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An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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