Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 51 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 4 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 50 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 5 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 43 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 4 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 30 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 4 → 5 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 27 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 50 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 17 → 7 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 47 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 16 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 47 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 38 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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