tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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PST, Nov 13 35 min ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Delay LAX departures

LAX departures back near normal: 27% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 49% at worst → 27% now

Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.

Window 12:16 AM–1:16 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 18%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View LAX
PST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Observed Informational Resolved Recovery Slow taxi-in SFO arrivals

SFO arrivals back to usual taxi-in times: 7% took 13+ min

What changed: slow share 35% at worst → 7% now

Of 15 aircraft that landed at SFO (SFO) between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 1 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.1 minutes; the median was 2.3 minutes. Usually 5% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 13% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.

Landed 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 15 arrivalsSlow 7%Usually 5%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA surface surveillance Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SFO
CST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast 44% Significant New Delay MSY departures

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for New Orleans departures noon–3 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from New Orleans noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 44%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View MSY
EST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast Major Developing Escalation Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View EWR
EST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast Major Developing Escalation Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday

What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 98 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (7) 6 earlier matching updates View EWR
EST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast Major Developing De-escalation Cancellation BOS departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Boston departures noon–3 PM Friday

What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 77 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View BOS
EST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast 35% Significant Developing De-escalation Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 35%

What changed: 47% → 35% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from Boston noon–3 PM Friday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 35%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View BOS
EST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast 29% Informational Resolved Resolution Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal

What changed: 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 14%

Tailodds’ model gives the 118 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 29%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View BOS
EST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation LGA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 6–9 AM Friday

What changed: about 11 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (7) 6 earlier matching updates View LGA
EST, Nov 13 56 min ago
Forecast 55% Major Developing Escalation Delay LGA departures

Model raises LaGuardia departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%

What changed: 55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 55%Horizon 14.1 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (3) 2 earlier matching updates View LGA
PST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Observed Major New Delay LAX arrivals

LAX arrivals running late: 62% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 11:47 PM–12:47 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 19%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (1) View LAX
PST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Observed Significant New Delay LAS arrivals

Las Vegas arrivals running late: 50% reached the gate 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 11:33 PM and 12:33 AM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Window 11:33 PM–12:33 AM PSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 21%

Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules Timeline (1) View LAS
PST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 43% Significant New Delay SJC departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for San Jose departures noon–3 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Jose noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SJC
PST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 46% Significant New Delay SNA departures

Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Orange County departures noon–3 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Orange County noon–3 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 46%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SNA
PST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 43% Significant New Delay SMF departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Sacramento departures noon–3 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Sacramento noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 43%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View SMF
CST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 47% Significant New Delay MDW departures

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 47%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View MDW
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation EWR departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Friday

What changed: about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (5) 4 earlier matching updates View EWR
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 61% Significant Developing De-escalation Delay EWR departures

Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 61%

What changed: 70% → 61% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 61%Horizon 14.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View EWR
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 38% Significant Developing De-escalation Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 38%

What changed: 50% → 38% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 38%Horizon 14.5 hModel famA-fc-v3

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View BOS
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 38% Significant Developing De-escalation Delay BOS departures

Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 38%

What changed: 50% → 38% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Friday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 38%Horizon 11.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View BOS
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday

What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 104 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (7) 6 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation JFK departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among JFK departures 6–9 AM Friday

What changed: about 11 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (6) 5 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast 38% Significant Developing De-escalation Delay JFK departures

Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 37%

What changed: 49% → 37% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 38%Horizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (4) 3 earlier matching updates View JFK
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation LGA departures

Updated model now expects about 9 among LaGuardia departures noon–3 PM Friday

What changed: about 12 → 9 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View LGA
EST, Nov 13 1 h ago
Forecast Significant Developing De-escalation Cancellation LGA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among LaGuardia departures 9 AM–noon Friday

What changed: about 21 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 113 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 5.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (6) 5 earlier matching updates View LGA

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