Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 12:06 PM and 1:06 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
Of 13 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
▲ 62% → 75% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 68% → 83% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 70% → 81% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
Of 12 departures that took off between 8:29 AM and 9:29 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 22% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:36 PM and 5:36 PM CST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
▲ 44% → 58% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 44% → 55% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:21 PM and 10:21 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
▲ 61% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 4:06 PM and 5:06 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
4 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View AUS
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Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?