Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 57 departures that took off between 12:11 PM and 1:11 PM CST, 25 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:11 PM–1:11 PM CSTSample 57 flightsLate 44%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 134 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 226 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 46% → 51% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 24 → 18 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 240 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~18 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 86 → 17 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 225 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~17 cancellationsHorizon 7.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 89 → 21 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 227 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~21 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 68% → 44% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 227 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 69% → 40% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 240 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 14 → 99 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 99 of the 240 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (41%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~99 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 240 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 100% at worst → 8% now
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 4:54 AM and 5:54 AM CST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at O'Hare arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:54 AM–5:54 AM CSTSample 24 flightsLate 8%Typical 26%
What changed: 42% → 31%; calm-weather level 15%
Tailodds’ model gives the 238 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Sunday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 14 → 27 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 130 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~28 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 73% → 56%
Of 54 departures that took off between 5:46 PM and 6:46 PM CST, 30 left at least 15 minutes late. O'Hare typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:46 PM–6:46 PM CSTSample 54 flightsLate 56%Typical 34%
What changed: about 44 → 23 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 226 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~24 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 56% → 68% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from O'Hare 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 29 → 38 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 38 of the 223 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~38 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 38 → 46 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 220 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~46 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 59% → 71% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 225 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 71%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 59% → 72% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 222 departures scheduled from O'Hare 3–6 PM Saturday an average 72% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 72%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 58% → 71% since the 9:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 220 departures scheduled from O'Hare noon–3 PM Saturday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 71%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 25 → 52 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 52 of the 236 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~52 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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