Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
What changed: 61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 74%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 63% → 75% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 76% → 89% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 92% → 81% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 1:33 PM and 2:33 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 61%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 departures that took off between 7:20 PM and 8:20 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 48% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 13 departures that took off between 2:31 PM and 3:31 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 77% → 65% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:28 PM and 2:28 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Monday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 7:40 PM and 8:40 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View DAL
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