Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 61 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 60 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 7 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 60 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 60 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 3 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 86 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 6 → 5 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 59 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 71 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 59 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 79 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 3 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 69 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 59 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 13 → 9 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 6. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 64 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 7 → 10 expected cancellations since the 9:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 76 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 4. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 63 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 43 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 63 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 1 of the 76 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 62 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 71 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
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Observed
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Forecast
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