Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 13 departures that took off between 11:23 AM and 12:23 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:23 AM–12:23 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 19%
What changed: 62% → 75% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 75%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 68% → 83% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 83%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 70% → 81% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 41% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 44% → 30%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 31%; calm-weather level 8%
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 84%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 88%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 65%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 54% → 74%
Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:50 PM–1:50 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 74%Typical 27%
What changed: 40% → 36%; calm-weather level 30%
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 36%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 53% at worst → 7% now
Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:45 AM–11:45 AM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 72% → 68%
Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:34 PM–5:34 PM CSTSample 19 flightsLate 68%Typical 38%
What changed: late share 45% at worst → 8% now
Of 12 departures that took off between 8:29 AM and 9:29 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 22% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:29 AM–9:29 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 8%Typical 12%
What changed: late share 67% → 85%
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 42% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:21 PM–9:21 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 42%
What changed: late share 68% at worst → 14% now
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 4:36 PM and 5:36 PM CST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:36 PM–5:36 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 14%Typical 22%
What changed: 44% → 58% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 50 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 58%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 44% → 55% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 94% at worst → 24% now
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:21 PM and 10:21 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Austin arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:21 PM–10:21 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 22%
What changed: 61% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 73%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 56% → 87%
Of 15 departures that took off between 4:06 PM and 5:06 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:06 PM–5:06 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 87%Typical 37%
What changed: 50% → 62% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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