Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 83 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 4. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 151 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 16. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~14 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 5.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 8 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 144 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 122 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 13.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 7 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 130 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 122 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 89 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 132 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 8 → 4
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 161 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 9 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 118 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~4 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 60 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 8 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 96 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 4 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 69 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 76 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Tuesday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 82 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 4 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Tuesday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 11.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 3 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 5 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 75 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Monday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 13.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 4 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 58 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 4 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 86 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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