Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 53 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 59% since the 8:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 9 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 125 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 56% → 66% since the 5:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 51% → 63% since the 6:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 63%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 23 departures that took off between 8:44 AM and 9:44 AM MST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:44 AM–9:44 AM MSTSample 23 flightsLate 48%Typical 16%
What changed: about 30 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 41 → 15 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 50% → 39% since the 4:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 39%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 30 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 16 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 9:44 PM and 10:44 PM MST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 20% of arrivals at Phoenix arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:44 PM–10:44 PM MSTSample 15 flightsLate 100%Typical 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Phoenix midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 68% → 87% since the 2:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 87%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 16 departures that took off between 7:25 PM and 8:25 PM MST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:25 PM–8:25 PM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 100%Typical 32%
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 45 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Phoenix (PHX) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 3:00 PM MST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 1:52 PM MST.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 113 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 81% since the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 87%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
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