Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 91 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 81 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 65 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 92 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 13 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~13 cancellationsHorizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 16 → 25 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 34 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (73%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~25 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 15 → 61 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 61 of the 113 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (54%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~61 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 11 → 6 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 73 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Friday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 9 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 100 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 12 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~10 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 46 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Thursday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 116 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~8 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 4 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 114 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 4 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 87 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 5 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 93 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 112 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~9 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~3 cancellationsHorizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 6 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 96 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: about 7 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~2 cancellationsHorizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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